August SMM China refined bismuth production is estimated to rise around 14% MoM [SMM data]

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in August 2025 is expected to increase by around 14% MoM compared to July. Over recent months, bismuth production experienced a sudden sharp decline in May, followed by two consecutive months of downward trends. The rebound in August, the first of its kind, was anticipated by many market participants. Industry sources indicated that the continuous decline in bismuth prices over the past month reflects the supply pressure resulting from increased supply. However, the 14% rebound remains relatively small, and with raw material tightness persisting as the overarching trend, production is likely to remain at low levels. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 24 surveyed producers, three reported significant production increases in August, while none saw notable declines. The remaining producers maintained relatively stable output. Many market participants expect that raw material shortages for bismuth producers nationwide will remain difficult to alleviate in September, with production likely to continue facing constraints. Refined bismuth output is expected to stabilize or experience minor increases, while the likelihood of another significant decline appears low.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its national refined bismuth production assessment. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey includes 24 producers across eight provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a coverage rate exceeding 99%.

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